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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| CLE | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota Twins
53%
Cleveland Guardians
47%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Progressive Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Minnesota Twins Away Starter
W-L
6-5
Season IP
110.1
Season K
128
ERA
2.85
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor LarnachBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Byron BuxtonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Kody ClemensBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Josh BellBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Royce LewisBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Victor CaratiniBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Brooks LeeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Alan RodenBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Ryan KreidlerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe RyanPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tanner BibeePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
twins 0 - 0 guardians. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Minnesota Twins
-113
Favorite
Cleveland Guardians
+113
Underdog
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
5.1 + 3.4 = 8.5
Expected: Minnesota Twins + Cleveland Guardians
Run Line (-1.5)
Minnesota Twins -1.5
Expected margin: -1.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians Home Starter
IP
1.0
K
2
ER
0
H
1
BB
0
Pitches
15
W-L
3-9
Season IP
113.1
Season K
88
ERA
3.89
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven KwanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Travis BazzanaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Chase DeLauterBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Brayan RocchioBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Rhys HoskinsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Daniel SchneemannBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | David FryBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Patrick BaileyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Petey HalpinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.317
Avg OPS
0.715
Pitching FIP
3.55
Pitching K%
24.13%
▸Power: Byron Buxton 25HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Morris 2.63, Joe Ryan 2.77
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Joe Ryan 28.4%, Kendry Rojas 25.6%
Avg wOBA
0.313
Avg OPS
0.710
Pitching FIP
2.97
Pitching K%
31.15%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cade Smith 2.17, Colin Holderman 2.49, Erik Sabrowski 3.21
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cade Smith 35.3%, Colin Holderman 28.2%, Erik Sabrowski 40%