Today's starting pitching matchup features Arizona Diamondbacks's Kohl Drake (0-0, 5.00 ERA) against Cleveland Guardians's Parker Messick (8-6, 2.59 ERA).

Cleveland Guardians's Parker Messick posts an solid 2.59 ERA this season, while Kohl Drake has been shaky at 5.00. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Kohl Drake — FIP 6.32, K% 15.0%, 9.0 IP / Parker Messick — FIP 3.18, K% 24.6%, 125.3 IP

2026 season record: Arizona Diamondbacks 58-52 (.527), Cleveland Guardians 56-55 (.505).

Recent form: Arizona Diamondbacks on a 3-game win streak, Cleveland Guardians on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Cleveland Guardians holds the edge.

Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Pfaadt 4.00 ERA, 49K in 72.0IP, Brandyn Garcia (Setup) 2.10 ERA, 36K in 30.0IP, Eduardo Rodriguez 2.48 ERA, 88K in 130.2IP.

Cleveland Guardians bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Smith (Closer) 2.52 ERA, 70K in 50.0IP, Colin Holderman (Setup) 1.71 ERA, 41K in 42.0IP, Erik Sabrowski (Setup) 3.77 ERA, 52K in 31.0IP.

Projected win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 39% vs Cleveland Guardians 61%

Factors: Cleveland Guardians's starter owns the lower ERA, Cleveland Guardians's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Kohl Drake averages 4.5 IP per start vs. Parker Messick at 6.0 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Parker Messick has allowed 11 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.