StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
Toronto Blue Jays 0 - 1 Detroit Tigers (Bot 6th)
Live Game
Bot 6: Detroit Tigers leads 1-0. Toronto Blue Jays needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
45.3%
Detroit Tigers
54.7%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Comerica Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Toronto Blue Jays Away Starter
IP
1.1
K
3
ER
0
H
1
BB
0
Pitches
18
W-L
2-0
Season IP
16.1
Season K
22
ERA
4.96
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George SpringerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Yohendrick PiñangoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Kazuma OkamotoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Daulton VarshoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Jesús SánchezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Lenyn SosaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Andrés GiménezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Tyler HeinemanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason FluhartyPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.1 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
Spencer MilesPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.2 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | - | |||||||
Braydon FisherPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Casey MizePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 6.0 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
tigers edged out a 1-0 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
Matt Vierling (tigers) went 2-for-3 (incl. 1 HR) with 1 RBI.
Casey Mize pitched 6.0 IP on 71 pitches, 4 K, 0 ER — a quality start.
Casey Mize averaged 11.8 pitches per inning — highly efficient.
2 relievers used, 4.1 IP total, 1 runs allowed.
blue-jays bullpen ERA: 2.08 (4.3 IP)
Spencer Miles (blue-jays) — 3.2 IP, 0 runs, 5 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
+121
Underdog
Detroit Tigers
-121
Favorite
Over / Under
6.5
Total Runs Line
3.3 + 3.2 = 6.5
Expected: Toronto Blue Jays + Detroit Tigers
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: -0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers Home Starter
IP
6.0
K
4
ER
0
H
2
BB
0
Pitches
71
W-L
2-2
Season IP
37.0
Season K
39
ERA
2.43
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin McGonigleBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Dillon DinglerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Gage WorkmanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Matt VierlingBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Riley GreeneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Spencer TorkelsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Zach McKinstryBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Wenceel PérezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jake RogersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Spencer Miles (blue-jays) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
Bot 6: Detroit Tigers leads 1-0. Toronto Blue Jays needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.298
Avg OPS
0.668
Pitching FIP
2.77
Pitching K%
29.18%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dylan Cease 1.86, Joe Mantiply 2.69, Jeff Hoffman 3.15, Braydon Fisher 3.39
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Dylan Cease 34.6%, Jeff Hoffman 35.4%
Avg wOBA
0.304
Avg OPS
0.696
Pitching FIP
3.49
Pitching K%
24.23%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸High K% (28%+): 4 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Casey Mize 2.67, Burch Smith 2.74, Brant Hurter 3.46
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Casey Mize 26.5%, Burch Smith 30%