Today's starting pitching matchup features Philadelphia Phillies's Zack Wheeler (9-1, 2.28 ERA) against Detroit Tigers's Tarik Skubal (5-4, 3.06 ERA).

Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Zack Wheeler 0.91, Tarik Skubal 0.95.

Advanced metrics: Zack Wheeler — FIP 3.10, K% 29.4%, 87.0 IP / Tarik Skubal — FIP 3.11, K% 30.4%, 70.7 IP

2026 season record: Philadelphia Phillies 52-43 (.547), Detroit Tigers 44-50 (.468).

Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge in the season standings, though Detroit Tigers can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Philadelphia Phillies on a 1-game losing streak, Detroit Tigers on a 6-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge.

Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 5.75 ERA, 102K in 97.0IP, Alan Rangel 4.19 ERA, 22K in 19.1IP, Brad Keller (Setup) 4.02 ERA, 32K in 31.1IP.

Detroit Tigers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Beau Brieske 7.00 ERA, 7K in 9.0IP, Casey Mize 2.79 ERA, 77K in 77.1IP, Drew Anderson (Setup) 4.18 ERA, 70K in 56.0IP.

Projected win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 51% vs Detroit Tigers 49%

Factors: Philadelphia Phillies's starter owns the lower ERA, Detroit Tigers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Zack Wheeler averages 6.2 IP per start vs. Tarik Skubal at 5.9 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Zack Wheeler has allowed 10 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.