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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Philadelphia Phillies
34.8%
Detroit Tigers
65.2%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Comerica Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Philadelphia Phillies Away Starter
IP
5.0
K
5
ER
1
H
6
BB
0
Pitches
66
W-L
10-4
Season IP
120.1
Season K
137
ERA
2.62
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea TurnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Kyle SchwarberBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryce HarperBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Brandon MarshBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Alec BohmBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Bryson StottBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | J.T. RealmutoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 3 | 1 | - | 2 | |||||||
| 8 | Gabriel Rincones Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Derek HillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher SánchezPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 66 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Casey MizePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.2 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | - | |||||||
Drew AndersonPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
Matt Vierling (tigers) went 3-for-3 with 0 RBI.
1 relievers used, 0.1 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
tigers bullpen ERA: 0.00 (0.3 IP)
Drew Anderson (tigers) — 0.1 IP, 0 runs, 1 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+187
Underdog
Detroit Tigers
-187
Favorite
Over / Under
7
Total Runs Line
3.4 + 3.5 = 6.9
Expected: Philadelphia Phillies + Detroit Tigers
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: +0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers Home Starter
IP
5.2
K
5
ER
3
H
5
BB
2
Pitches
97
W-L
4-5
Season IP
71.2
Season K
72
ERA
2.64
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt VierlingBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 3 | 3 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Kevin McGonigleBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Dillon DinglerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Spencer TorkelsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Riley GreeneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Eduardo ValenciaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Hao-Yu LeeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Ben MalgeriBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Zach McKinstryBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 6: Philadelphia Phillies leads 4-1. Detroit Tigers needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.320
Avg OPS
0.734
Pitching FIP
4.65
Pitching K%
25.00%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 20HR, Brandon Marsh 15HR
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alan Rangel 25.9%, Chase Shugart 27.2%
Avg wOBA
0.306
Avg OPS
0.692
Pitching FIP
4.35
Pitching K%
26.02%
▸Power: Dillon Dingler 19HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Casey Mize 2.69, Drew Sommers 3.42
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Casey Mize 25.3%, Drew Sommers 31.8%, Drew Anderson 28.6%