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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
33.5%
Detroit Tigers
66.5%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Comerica Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Kansas City Royals Away Starter
IP
6.0
K
2
ER
2
H
6
BB
2
Pitches
86
W-L
5-7
Season IP
131.1
Season K
103
ERA
3.63
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter JensenBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Lane ThomasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jac CaglianoneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Salvador PerezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Vinnie PasquantinoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 3 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Nick LoftinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Michael MasseyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | Isaac CollinsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Andrew VelazquezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael WachaPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 6.0 | 86 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Casey MizePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 6.0 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
Kyle FinneganPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
Vinnie Pasquantino (royals) went 3-for-3 with 0 RBI.
Casey Mize pitched 6.0 IP on 85 pitches, 3 K, 1 ER — a quality start.
Michael Wacha pitched 6.0 IP on 86 pitches, 2 K, 2 ER — a quality start.
1 relievers used, 0.1 IP total, 1 runs allowed.
tigers bullpen ERA: 27.00 (0.3 IP)
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
+199
Underdog
Detroit Tigers
-199
Favorite
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
3.2 + 4.6 = 7.8
Expected: Kansas City Royals + Detroit Tigers
Run Line (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers -1.5
Expected margin: +1.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers Home Starter
IP
6.0
K
3
ER
1
H
3
BB
0
Pitches
85
W-L
4-6
Season IP
86.2
Season K
85
ERA
2.70
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colt KeithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Kevin McGonigleBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Gleyber TorresBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Kerry CarpenterBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Riley GreeneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Hao-Yu LeeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 7 | Zach McKinstryBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Matt VierlingBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jake RogersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - |
Top 7: Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 2-2.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.317
Avg OPS
0.721
Pitching FIP
4.41
Pitching K%
20.05%
▸Power: Jac Caglianone 16HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Lynch IV 3.1
Avg wOBA
0.319
Avg OPS
0.721
Pitching FIP
3.89
Pitching K%
23.08%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Dillon Dingler 22HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Casey Mize 2.58
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Drew Sommers 29.8%, Drew Anderson 28.6%