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| Team | 1 | 2 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
51.8%
Houston Astros
48.2%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Daikin Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Detroit Tigers Away Starter
IP
1.1
K
1
ER
0
H
0
BB
0
Pitches
17
W-L
2-3
Season IP
48.2
Season K
50
ERA
2.22
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin McGonigleBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Dillon DinglerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Riley GreeneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Spencer TorkelsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Kerry CarpenterBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Colt KeithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Matt VierlingBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Hao-Yu LeeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jake RogersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Casey MizePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peter LambertPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
tigers 0 - 0 astros. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
-107
Favorite
Houston Astros
+107
Underdog
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
4.5 + 3.5 = 8
Expected: Detroit Tigers + Houston Astros
Run Line (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers -1.5
Expected margin: -1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Houston Astros Home Starter
IP
2.0
K
2
ER
0
H
0
BB
0
Pitches
26
W-L
5-4
Season IP
59.0
Season K
55
ERA
3.36
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy PeñaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Yordan AlvarezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Christian WalkerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Isaac ParedesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Jose AltuveBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Cam SmithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Joey LoperfidoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Jake MeyersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Christian VázquezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
Bot 2: Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.270
Avg OPS
0.608
Pitching FIP
2.91
Pitching K%
27.75%
▸Power: Dillon Dingler 16HR
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Casey Mize 2.38, Drew Sommers 2.7, Enmanuel De Jesus 2.99
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Casey Mize 26.6%, Drew Sommers 33.3%, Drew Anderson 29.3%
Avg wOBA
0.299
Avg OPS
0.679
Pitching FIP
4.46
Pitching K%
22.48%
▸Power: Christian Walker 18HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Enyel De Los Santos 2.78
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Abreu 28.2%