StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
Baltimore Orioles 1 - 0 Houston Astros (Top 4th)
Live Game
Top 4: Baltimore Orioles leads 1-0. Houston Astros needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
Loading...
Loading...
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
55.9%
Houston Astros
44.1%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Daikin Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Baltimore Orioles Away Starter
IP
3.0
K
5
ER
0
H
3
BB
0
Pitches
37
W-L
6-7
Season IP
93.1
Season K
74
ERA
4.34
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adley RutschmanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Gunnar HendersonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Taylor WardBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Pete AlonsoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Samuel BasalloBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Dylan BeaversBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Colton CowserBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jackson HollidayBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trevor RogersPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer ArrighettiPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
orioles edged out a 1-0 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
Spencer Arrighetti averaged 21.7 pitches per inning — high workload.
Loading comments...
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
-127
Favorite
Houston Astros
+127
Underdog
Over / Under
10.5
Total Runs Line
5.6 + 4.8 = 10.4
Expected: Baltimore Orioles + Houston Astros
Run Line (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
Expected margin: -0.8 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Houston Astros Home Starter
IP
3.0
K
4
ER
1
H
1
BB
4
Pitches
65
W-L
7-5
Season IP
85.0
Season K
85
ERA
4.34
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick AllenBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Yordan AlvarezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Isaac ParedesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Jose AltuveBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Christian WalkerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Yainer DiazBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Cam SmithBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Zach DezenzoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Lucas SpenceBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Top 4: Baltimore Orioles leads 1-0. Houston Astros needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.302
Avg OPS
0.683
Pitching FIP
4.27
Pitching K%
20.25%
▸Power: Gunnar Henderson 17HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
Avg wOBA
0.315
Avg OPS
0.716
Pitching FIP
5.56
Pitching K%
21.25%
▸Power: Christian Walker 20HR
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Abreu 28.2%