Today's starting pitching matchup features Arizona Diamondbacks's Brandon Pfaadt (7-2, 3.49 ERA) against Houston Astros's Ethan Pecko (1-0, 6.23 ERA).

Arizona Diamondbacks's Brandon Pfaadt posts an solid 3.49 ERA this season, while Ethan Pecko has been struggling at 6.23. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Brandon Pfaadt — FIP 4.17, K% 16.0%, 111.0 IP / Ethan Pecko — FIP 8.02, K% 15.5%, 13.0 IP

2026 season record: Arizona Diamondbacks 74-68 (.521), Houston Astros 73-69 (.514).

Recent form: Arizona Diamondbacks on a 1-game losing streak, Houston Astros on a 3-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Arizona Diamondbacks holds the edge.

Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Pfaadt 3.49 ERA, 73K in 111.0IP, Brandyn Garcia (Setup) 2.20 ERA, 49K in 41.0IP.

Houston Astros bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: AJ Blubaugh (Setup) 3.02 ERA, 87K in 86.1IP, Bennett Sousa (Setup) 6.23 ERA, 23K in 21.2IP, Bryan Abreu (Closer) 3.86 ERA, 69K in 53.2IP.

Projected win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 61% vs Houston Astros 39%

Factors: Arizona Diamondbacks's starter owns the lower ERA, Houston Astros's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Brandon Pfaadt averages 7.4 IP per start vs. Ethan Pecko at 4.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 13 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.