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| Team | 1 | 2 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | - | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| KC | 6 | - | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Philadelphia Phillies
62.3%
Kansas City Royals
37.7%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Kauffman Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Philadelphia Phillies Away Starter
IP
1.0
K
1
ER
6
H
5
BB
1
Pitches
31
W-L
10-3
Season IP
117.0
Season K
136
ERA
2.00
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea TurnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Kyle SchwarberBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryce HarperBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Alec BohmBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Brandon MarshBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Edmundo SosaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Bryson StottBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | J.T. RealmutoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Derek HillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher SánchezPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noah CameronPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.1 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
royals crushed phillies 6-1. A 5-run blowout.
Cristopher Sánchez was pulled after just 1.0 IP with 6 ER, putting pressure on the bullpen.
royals scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 1st, seizing momentum.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
-165
Favorite
Kansas City Royals
+165
Underdog
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
4.7 + 3.2 = 7.9
Expected: Philadelphia Phillies + Kansas City Royals
Run Line (-1.5)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Expected margin: -1.5 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals Home Starter
IP
1.1
K
3
ER
1
H
3
BB
2
Pitches
42
W-L
4-6
Season IP
83.2
Season K
75
ERA
4.95
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lane ThomasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Salvador PerezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Jac CaglianoneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Nick LoftinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Starling MarteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Tyler TolbertBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Luke MaileBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| 9 | Josh RojasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Top 2: Kansas City Royals leads 6-1. Philadelphia Phillies needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.323
Avg OPS
0.743
Pitching FIP
2.77
Pitching K%
29.97%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 20HR, Brandon Marsh 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Jhoan Duran 1.11, Cristopher Sánchez 2.31, Jesús Luzardo 2.95
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Jhoan Duran 39.5%, Cristopher Sánchez 28.6%, Jesús Luzardo 28.6%
Avg wOBA
0.300
Avg OPS
0.685
Pitching FIP
4.22
Pitching K%
21.57%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Lynch IV 3.13