StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
San Diego Padres 1 - 2 Kansas City Royals (Bot 3rd)
Live Game
Bot 3: Kansas City Royals leads 2-1. San Diego Padres needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| KC | 2 | 0 | - | 2 | 3 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
48.7%
Kansas City Royals
51.3%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Kauffman Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
San Diego Padres Away Starter
IP
2.0
K
4
ER
2
H
3
BB
1
Pitches
40
W-L
1-7
Season IP
55.2
Season K
55
ERA
6.47
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Jackson MerrillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Xander BogaertsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Manny MachadoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Gavin SheetsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Ty FranceBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jake CronenworthBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Miguel AndujarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Freddy FerminBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Griffin CanningPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Randy DobnakPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
royals edged out a 2-1 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
+105
Underdog
Kansas City Royals
-105
Favorite
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.4 + 4.7 = 10.1
Expected: San Diego Padres + Kansas City Royals
Run Line (-1.5)
San Diego Padres -1.5
Expected margin: -0.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals Home Starter
IP
3.0
K
3
ER
1
H
2
BB
2
Pitches
58
W-L
0-0
Season IP
12.1
Season K
7
ERA
2.19
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter JensenBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jac CaglianoneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Lane ThomasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 5 | Vinnie PasquantinoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Salvador PerezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Michael MasseyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Nick LoftinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Isaac CollinsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 3: Kansas City Royals leads 2-1. San Diego Padres needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.258
Avg OPS
0.575
Pitching FIP
4.14
Pitching K%
22.07%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Adrian Morejon 2.45, Bradgley Rodriguez 2.98
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adrian Morejon 27.7%
Avg wOBA
0.317
Avg OPS
0.722
Pitching FIP
4.84
Pitching K%
20.13%
▸Power: Jac Caglianone 15HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Lynch IV 3.15