Loading...
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| LAD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
32.6%
Los Angeles Dodgers
67.4%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Arizona Diamondbacks Away Starter
W-L
8-3
Season IP
114.0
Season K
79
ERA
2.29
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
diamondbacks crushed dodgers 9-3. A 6-run blowout.
Loading comments...
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks
+207
Underdog
Los Angeles Dodgers
-207
Favorite
Over / Under
9
Total Runs Line
3.7 + 5.4 = 9.1
Expected: Arizona Diamondbacks + Los Angeles Dodgers
Run Line (-1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Expected margin: +1.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers Home Starter
W-L
3-1
Season IP
31.1
Season K
38
ERA
4.88
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Arizona Diamondbacks topped Los Angeles Dodgers 9-3. A comfortable 6-run margin reflected Arizona Diamondbacks's steady command of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.304
Avg OPS
0.692
Pitching FIP
3.74
Pitching K%
20.68%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brandyn Garcia 2.01
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brandyn Garcia 30.2%
Avg wOBA
0.337
Avg OPS
0.764
Pitching FIP
3.74
Pitching K%
27.60%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Freddie Freeman 15HR, Andy Pages 17HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex Vesia 2.15, Edgardo Henriquez 2.84
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alex Vesia 33.8%, Emmet Sheehan 26.1%, Brock Stewart 25.7%