Today's starting pitching matchup features Arizona Diamondbacks's Brandon Pfaadt (2-1, 4.84 ERA) against Los Angeles Dodgers's Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9-5, 2.49 ERA).

Los Angeles Dodgers's Yoshinobu Yamamoto posts an elite 2.49 ERA this season, while Brandon Pfaadt has been shaky at 4.84. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Brandon Pfaadt — FIP 4.94, K% 18.7%, 48.3 IP / Yoshinobu Yamamoto — FIP 3.24, K% 25.1%, 104.7 IP

2026 season record: Arizona Diamondbacks 47-47 (.500), Los Angeles Dodgers 61-34 (.642).

Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge in the season standings, though Arizona Diamondbacks can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Arizona Diamondbacks -22, Los Angeles Dodgers +158. Los Angeles Dodgers boasts superior run production.

Recent form: Arizona Diamondbacks on a 2-game win streak, Los Angeles Dodgers on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge.

Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Pfaadt 4.84 ERA, 39K in 48.1IP, Brandyn Garcia (Setup) 1.96 ERA, 26K in 23.0IP, Drey Jameson 4.11 ERA, 11K in 15.1IP.

Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Alex Vesia (Setup) 2.27 ERA, 45K in 31.2IP, Brock Stewart 3.12 ERA, 9K in 8.2IP, Edgardo Henriquez (Setup) 2.33 ERA, 37K in 38.2IP.

Projected win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 39% vs Los Angeles Dodgers 61%

Factors: Los Angeles Dodgers's starter owns the lower ERA, Los Angeles Dodgers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Brandon Pfaadt averages 9.7 IP per start vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 6.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed 11 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.