St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features St. Louis Cardinals's Quinn Mathews (1-2, 5.03 ERA) against Los Angeles Dodgers's Tarik Skubal (8-7, 2.84 ERA).
Los Angeles Dodgers's Tarik Skubal posts an solid 2.84 ERA this season, while Quinn Mathews has been shaky at 5.03. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Quinn Mathews — FIP 3.10, K% 22.5%, 19.7 IP / Tarik Skubal — FIP 2.53, K% 30.9%, 126.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: St. Louis Cardinals 69-70 (.496), Los Angeles Dodgers 82-56 (.594).
Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge in the season standings, though St. Louis Cardinals can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: St. Louis Cardinals -10, Los Angeles Dodgers +148. Los Angeles Dodgers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: St. Louis Cardinals on a 1-game win streak, Los Angeles Dodgers on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brycen Mautz 9.00 ERA, 10K in 6.0IP, George Soriano (Setup) 4.12 ERA, 58K in 59.0IP.
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Alex Vesia (Setup) 3.14 ERA, 60K in 48.2IP, Blake Snell 2.42 ERA, 36K in 26.0IP, Blake Treinen (Setup) 3.52 ERA, 25K in 23.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 40% vs Los Angeles Dodgers 60%
Factors: Los Angeles Dodgers's starter owns the lower ERA, Los Angeles Dodgers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Quinn Mathews averages 4.9 IP per start vs. Tarik Skubal at 6.0 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Tarik Skubal has allowed 12 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.