Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Philadelphia Phillies's Aaron Nola (1-3, 6.03 ERA) against Miami Marlins's Janson Junk (2-2, 3.00 ERA).
Miami Marlins's Janson Junk posts an solid 3.00 ERA this season, while Aaron Nola has been struggling at 6.03. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Aaron Nola — FIP 4.60, K% 25.0%, 31.3 IP / Janson Junk — FIP 3.43, K% 15.8%, 33.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Philadelphia Phillies 14-20 (.412), Miami Marlins 16-18 (.471).
Miami Marlins holds the edge in the season standings, though Philadelphia Phillies can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Philadelphia Phillies on a 1-game win streak, Miami Marlins on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Miami Marlins holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 6.03 ERA, 35 K in 31.1 IP, Andrew Painter 5.28 ERA, 28 K in 29.0 IP, Brad Keller 4.61 ERA, 15 K in 13.2 IP.
Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Nardi 6.00 ERA, 14 K in 12.0 IP, Anthony Bender 4.85 ERA, 16 K in 13.0 IP, Calvin Faucher 4.50 ERA, 14 K in 12.0 IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 35% vs Miami Marlins 65%
Factors: Miami Marlins's starter owns the lower ERA, Miami Marlins's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Aaron Nola averages 5.2 IP per start vs. Janson Junk at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.