Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Tampa Bay Rays's Drew Rasmussen (4-2, 3.36 ERA) against Miami Marlins's Ryan Gusto (0-0, 9.00 ERA).
Tampa Bay Rays's Drew Rasmussen posts an solid 3.36 ERA this season, while Ryan Gusto has been struggling at 9.00. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Drew Rasmussen — FIP 3.66, K% 23.3%, 59.0 IP / Ryan Gusto — FIP 0.43, K% 28.6%, 3.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Tampa Bay Rays 36-23 (.610), Miami Marlins 29-34 (.460).
Tampa Bay Rays holds the edge in the season standings, though Miami Marlins can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Tampa Bay Rays on a 3-game losing streak, Miami Marlins on a 3-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Tampa Bay Rays holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Bryan Baker (Closer) 2.13 ERA, 29K in 25.1IP, Casey Legumina 3.51 ERA, 18K in 25.2IP.
Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Anthony Bender (Setup) 3.33 ERA, 26K in 24.1IP, Cade Gibson 7.27 ERA, 10K in 8.2IP, Calvin Faucher 4.13 ERA, 27K in 24.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Tampa Bay Rays 83% vs Miami Marlins 17%
Factors: Tampa Bay Rays's starter owns the lower ERA, Miami Marlins's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Drew Rasmussen averages 5.4 IP per start vs. Ryan Gusto at - IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.