Today's starting pitching matchup features San Diego Padres's Randy Vásquez (6-6, 4.72 ERA) against Miami Marlins's Eury Pérez (5-7, 3.53 ERA).

Miami Marlins's Eury Pérez posts an league-average 3.53 ERA this season, while Randy Vásquez has been shaky at 4.72. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Randy Vásquez — FIP 4.77, K% 16.3%, 87.7 IP / Eury Pérez — FIP 4.11, K% 28.0%, 91.7 IP

Randy Vásquez has a concerning .438 career BAA (7-for-16) vs. Miami Marlins's top of the order — early damage is a real possibility.

On the flip side, Ty France (0/7), Gavin Sheets (0/5) have all been largely shut down by Eury Pérez in their careers.

Eury Pérez owns a .130 career batting average against (3-for-23) vs. San Diego Padres's top of the order — a strong sign for a quality outing.

2026 season record: San Diego Padres 51-53 (.490), Miami Marlins 52-52 (.500).

Recent form: San Diego Padres on a 1-game win streak, Miami Marlins on a 10-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Miami Marlins holds the edge.

San Diego Padres bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Adrian Morejon (Setup) 3.25 ERA, 63K in 55.1IP, Bradgley Rodriguez (Setup) 2.01 ERA, 45K in 44.2IP, Germán Márquez 5.17 ERA, 34K in 47.0IP.

Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Gibson 5.06 ERA, 24K in 26.2IP, Calvin Faucher (Setup) 4.78 ERA, 44K in 43.1IP, Dax Fulton 2.70 ERA, 10K in 10.0IP.

Projected win probability: San Diego Padres 43% vs Miami Marlins 57%

Factors: Miami Marlins's starter owns the lower ERA, Miami Marlins's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Randy Vásquez averages 5.5 IP per start vs. Eury Pérez at 5.4 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Randy Vásquez has allowed 14 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.