Today's starting pitching matchup features Philadelphia Phillies's Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.16 ERA) against Miami Marlins's Tyler Phillips (2-5, 3.52 ERA).

Philadelphia Phillies's Zack Wheeler posts an elite 2.16 ERA this season, while Tyler Phillips has been league-average at 3.52. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Zack Wheeler — FIP 2.91, K% 30.8%, 100.0 IP / Tyler Phillips — FIP 4.55, K% 17.0%, 79.3 IP

2026 season record: Philadelphia Phillies 57-49 (.538), Miami Marlins 52-54 (.491).

Recent form: Philadelphia Phillies on a 1-game win streak, Miami Marlins on a 12-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge.

Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 5.82 ERA, 112K in 108.1IP, Chase Shugart 5.08 ERA, 42K in 33.2IP.

Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Gibson 4.88 ERA, 25K in 27.2IP, Calvin Faucher (Setup) 4.78 ERA, 44K in 43.1IP, Dax Fulton 5.25 ERA, 11K in 12.0IP.

Projected win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 53% vs Miami Marlins 47%

Factors: Philadelphia Phillies's starter owns the lower ERA, Miami Marlins's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Zack Wheeler averages 6.3 IP per start vs. Tyler Phillips at 7.9 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Zack Wheeler has allowed 11 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.