Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Chicago Cubs's Shota Imanaga (8-10, 4.01 ERA) against Miami Marlins's Janson Junk (6-8, 4.11 ERA).
Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Shota Imanaga 1.14, Janson Junk 1.30.
Advanced metrics: Shota Imanaga — FIP 4.80, K% 24.0%, 150.3 IP / Janson Junk — FIP 4.16, K% 16.1%, 103.0 IP
Career H2H Analysis
On the flip side, Otto Lopez has been overmatched by Shota Imanaga, going just 0-for-5 (.000) in their career matchup.
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Chicago Cubs 79-62 (.560), Miami Marlins 71-70 (.504).
Chicago Cubs holds the edge in the season standings, though Miami Marlins can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Chicago Cubs +133, Miami Marlins +14. Chicago Cubs boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Chicago Cubs on a 1-game win streak, Miami Marlins on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Chicago Cubs holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Civale 4.50 ERA, 80K in 98.0IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 4.98 ERA, 53K in 43.1IP, Clay Holmes 2.09 ERA, 63K in 81.2IP.
Miami Marlins bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Gibson 5.71 ERA, 35K in 41.0IP, Calvin Faucher (Setup) 3.77 ERA, 64K in 59.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Chicago Cubs 49% vs Miami Marlins 51%
Factors: Chicago Cubs's starter owns the lower ERA, Miami Marlins's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Shota Imanaga averages 5.6 IP per start vs. Janson Junk at 5.2 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Shota Imanaga has allowed 33 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.