Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Pittsburgh Pirates's Mitch Keller (2-1, 2.79 ERA) against Milwaukee Brewers's Jacob Misiorowski (1-2, 3.04 ERA).
Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Mitch Keller 1.10, Jacob Misiorowski 1.09.
Advanced metrics: Mitch Keller — FIP 3.27, K% 16.5%, 29.0 IP / Jacob Misiorowski — FIP 3.59, K% 37.8%, 26.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Pittsburgh Pirates 15-11 (.577), Milwaukee Brewers 13-12 (.520).
Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge in the season standings, though Milwaukee Brewers can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game win streak, Milwaukee Brewers on a 3-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braxton Ashcraft 2.43 ERA, 32 K in 29.2 IP, Bubba Chandler 4.88 ERA, 21 K in 24.0 IP, Carmen Mlodzinski 3.28 ERA, 26 K in 24.2 IP.
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby 2.93 ERA, 24 K in 15.1 IP, Abner Uribe 4.82 ERA, 10 K in 9.1 IP, Angel Zerpa 6.00 ERA, 7 K in 12.0 IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 49% vs Milwaukee Brewers 51%
Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Milwaukee Brewers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Mitch Keller averages 5.8 IP per start vs. Jacob Misiorowski at 5.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.