Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Cincinnati Reds's Nick Lodolo (2-2, 5.59 ERA) against Milwaukee Brewers's Robert Gasser (1-3, 4.50 ERA).
Milwaukee Brewers's Robert Gasser posts an league-average 4.50 ERA this season, while Nick Lodolo has been struggling at 5.59. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Nick Lodolo — FIP 5.37, K% 18.0%, 46.7 IP / Robert Gasser — FIP 5.13, K% 23.8%, 30.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Cincinnati Reds 39-43 (.476), Milwaukee Brewers 50-31 (.617).
Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge in the season standings, though Cincinnati Reds can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Cincinnati Reds -51, Milwaukee Brewers +120. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game losing streak, Milwaukee Brewers on a 2-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.90 ERA, 70K in 90.0IP, Brady Singer 5.12 ERA, 65K in 77.1IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 2.89 ERA, 32K in 37.1IP.
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby 3.31 ERA, 67K in 49.0IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 3.09 ERA, 32K in 32.0IP, Brandon Sproat 5.43 ERA, 73K in 69.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Cincinnati Reds 43% vs Milwaukee Brewers 57%
Factors: Milwaukee Brewers's starter owns the lower ERA, Milwaukee Brewers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Nick Lodolo averages 5.2 IP per start vs. Robert Gasser at 5.0 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.