Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Miami Marlins's Eury Pérez (5-7, 3.78 ERA) against Milwaukee Brewers's Robert Gasser (2-4, 5.24 ERA).
Miami Marlins's Eury Pérez posts an league-average 3.78 ERA this season, while Robert Gasser has been shaky at 5.24. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Eury Pérez — FIP 4.26, K% 27.2%, 85.7 IP / Robert Gasser — FIP 5.28, K% 21.4%, 46.3 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Miami Marlins 52-47 (.525), Milwaukee Brewers 61-37 (.622).
Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge in the season standings, though Miami Marlins can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Miami Marlins +21, Milwaukee Brewers +129. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Miami Marlins on a 5-game losing streak, Milwaukee Brewers on a 2-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Miami Marlins holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Gibson 5.04 ERA, 23K in 25.0IP, Calvin Faucher (Setup) 5.01 ERA, 41K in 41.1IP, Dax Fulton 2.57 ERA, 6K in 7.0IP.
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby (Setup) 3.49 ERA, 77K in 56.2IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 2.43 ERA, 39K in 40.2IP, Brandon Sproat 5.16 ERA, 87K in 82.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Miami Marlins 55% vs Milwaukee Brewers 45%
Factors: Miami Marlins's starter owns the lower ERA, Milwaukee Brewers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Eury Pérez averages 5.4 IP per start vs. Robert Gasser at 5.1 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Eury Pérez has allowed 13 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.