StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
Miami Marlins 3 - 1 Milwaukee Brewers (Bot 3rd)
Live Game
Bot 3: Miami Marlins leads 3-1. Milwaukee Brewers needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Miami Marlins
39.3%
Milwaukee Brewers
60.7%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of American Family Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Miami Marlins Away Starter
IP
2.0
K
3
ER
1
H
1
BB
3
Pitches
49
W-L
9-1
Season IP
108.0
Season K
116
ERA
2.58
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otto LopezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Heriberto HernándezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Kyle StowersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Xavier EdwardsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Javier SanojaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Liam HicksBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Leo JiménezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | Esteury RuizBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Joe MackBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | 1 |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max MeyerPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shane DrohanPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
marlins 3 - 1 brewers. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Miami Marlins
+154
Underdog
Milwaukee Brewers
-154
Favorite
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
3.9 + 4.7 = 8.6
Expected: Miami Marlins + Milwaukee Brewers
Run Line (-1.5)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Expected margin: +0.8 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers Home Starter
IP
3.0
K
3
ER
3
H
5
BB
1
Pitches
49
W-L
4-3
Season IP
73.0
Season K
70
ERA
3.33
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian YelichBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Jackson ChourioBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jake BauersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | William ContrerasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Garrett MitchellBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Luis LaraBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Cooper PrattBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Braden ShewmakeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 9 | Joey OrtizBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 3: Miami Marlins leads 3-1. Milwaukee Brewers needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.324
Avg OPS
0.734
Pitching FIP
3.41
Pitching K%
23.45%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dax Fulton 2.67, Cade Gibson 3.35, Calvin Faucher 3.35
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Eury Pérez 27.2%
Avg wOBA
0.311
Avg OPS
0.705
Pitching FIP
3.95
Pitching K%
24.88%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Aaron Ashby 3.17, Abner Uribe 3.4
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Aaron Ashby 30.9%