Today's starting pitching matchup features New York Mets's Freddy Peralta (5-8, 4.66 ERA) against Milwaukee Brewers's Jacob Misiorowski (10-4, 1.62 ERA).

Milwaukee Brewers's Jacob Misiorowski posts an elite 1.62 ERA this season, while Freddy Peralta has been shaky at 4.66. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Freddy Peralta — FIP 4.38, K% 22.3%, 104.3 IP / Jacob Misiorowski — FIP 2.09, K% 39.6%, 111.0 IP

Freddy Peralta has struggled against Milwaukee Brewers's No. 6 hitter Andrew Vaughn, allowing a .500 career average (4-for-8).

2026 season record: New York Mets 42-58 (.420), Milwaukee Brewers 62-37 (.626).

Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge in the season standings, though New York Mets can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: New York Mets -62, Milwaukee Brewers +131. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.

Recent form: New York Mets on a 1-game win streak, Milwaukee Brewers on a 3-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge.

New York Mets bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: A.J. Minter 1.80 ERA, 17K in 20.0IP, Brooks Raley (Setup) 2.02 ERA, 37K in 35.2IP, Christian Scott 2.87 ERA, 72K in 59.2IP.

Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby (Setup) 3.43 ERA, 78K in 57.2IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 2.43 ERA, 39K in 40.2IP, Brandon Sproat 5.16 ERA, 87K in 82.0IP.

Projected win probability: New York Mets 38% vs Milwaukee Brewers 62%

Factors: Milwaukee Brewers's starter owns the lower ERA, Milwaukee Brewers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Freddy Peralta averages 5.2 IP per start vs. Jacob Misiorowski at 6.2 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Freddy Peralta has allowed 15 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.