Today's starting pitching matchup features Colorado Rockies's Kyle Freeland (2-9, 7.28 ERA) against Milwaukee Brewers's Jacob Misiorowski (10-4, 1.57 ERA).

Milwaukee Brewers's Jacob Misiorowski posts an elite 1.57 ERA this season, while Kyle Freeland has been struggling at 7.28. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Kyle Freeland — FIP 4.90, K% 19.3%, 94.0 IP / Jacob Misiorowski — FIP 2.05, K% 39.4%, 115.0 IP

2026 season record: Colorado Rockies 42-64 (.396), Milwaukee Brewers 65-39 (.625).

Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge in the season standings, though Colorado Rockies can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Colorado Rockies -101, Milwaukee Brewers +133. Milwaukee Brewers boasts superior run production.

Recent form: Colorado Rockies on a 1-game losing streak, Milwaukee Brewers on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Milwaukee Brewers holds the edge.

Colorado Rockies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Antonio Senzatela 3.53 ERA, 45K in 51.0IP, Brennan Bernardino (Setup) 2.74 ERA, 33K in 42.2IP, Gabriel Hughes 2.79 ERA, 19K in 19.1IP.

Milwaukee Brewers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Ashby (Setup) 3.32 ERA, 82K in 59.2IP, Abner Uribe (Closer) 2.38 ERA, 41K in 41.2IP, Brandon Sproat 5.09 ERA, 91K in 86.2IP.

Projected win probability: Colorado Rockies 24% vs Milwaukee Brewers 76%

Factors: Milwaukee Brewers's starter owns the lower ERA, Milwaukee Brewers's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Kyle Freeland averages 5.2 IP per start vs. Jacob Misiorowski at 6.1 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Kyle Freeland has allowed 20 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.