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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Colorado Rockies
42.2%
Minnesota Twins
57.8%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Target Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Colorado Rockies Away Starter
W-L
3-9
Season IP
81.2
Season K
66
ERA
6.83
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
rockies 8 - 5 twins. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
+137
Underdog
Minnesota Twins
-137
Favorite
Over / Under
12
Total Runs Line
5.8 + 6.1 = 11.9
Expected: Colorado Rockies + Minnesota Twins
Run Line (-1.5)
Minnesota Twins -1.5
Expected margin: +0.3 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins Home Starter
W-L
0-0
Season IP
20.0
Season K
11
ERA
4.05
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Colorado Rockies defeated Minnesota Twins 8-5.
The turning point came in the top of the 7th. Colorado Rockies pushed across 3 runs to seize control of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.310
Avg OPS
0.708
Pitching FIP
3.09
Pitching K%
18.63%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Hunter Goodman 25HR
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: John Brebbia 2.43, Jimmy Herget 3.15, Antonio Senzatela 3.31, Brennan Bernardino 3.47
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Jimmy Herget 26.7%
Avg wOBA
0.331
Avg OPS
0.756
Pitching FIP
3.50
Pitching K%
21.98%
▸Power: Byron Buxton 25HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Morris 2.78, Eric Orze 3.26