Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Cincinnati Reds's Nick Lodolo (0-1, 7.20 ERA) against New York Mets's Nolan McLean (2-3, 3.57 ERA).
New York Mets's Nolan McLean posts an league-average 3.57 ERA this season, while Nick Lodolo has been struggling at 7.20. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Nick Lodolo — FIP 7.50, K% 16.4%, 15.0 IP / Nolan McLean — FIP 3.20, K% 29.5%, 58.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Cincinnati Reds 27-25 (.519), New York Mets 22-31 (.415).
Cincinnati Reds holds the edge in the season standings, though New York Mets can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Cincinnati Reds on a 1-game win streak, New York Mets on a 3-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, New York Mets holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.97 ERA, 38K in 56.2IP, Brady Singer 6.26 ERA, 34K in 46.0IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 3.38 ERA, 25K in 24.0IP.
New York Mets bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Austin Warren 1.72 ERA, 16K in 15.2IP, Brooks Raley (Setup) 1.35 ERA, 23K in 20.0IP, Christian Scott 3.20 ERA, 30K in 25.1IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Cincinnati Reds 29% vs New York Mets 71%
Factors: New York Mets's starter owns the lower ERA, New York Mets's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Nick Lodolo averages 5.0 IP per start vs. Nolan McLean at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.