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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | - | 6 | 8 | 0 |
Philadelphia Phillies
59.9%
New York Mets
40.1%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Citi Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Philadelphia Phillies Away Starter
W-L
2-2
Season IP
36.2
Season K
36
ERA
2.95
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
mets scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 6th, seizing momentum.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
-149
Favorite
New York Mets
+149
Underdog
Over / Under
7.5
Total Runs Line
4.1 + 3.5 = 7.6
Expected: Philadelphia Phillies + New York Mets
Run Line (-1.5)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Expected margin: -0.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
New York Mets Home Starter
W-L
2-0
Season IP
45.0
Season K
53
ERA
3.20
Season Record
No lineup information available.
New York Mets topped Philadelphia Phillies 6-2. A comfortable 4-run margin reflected New York Mets's steady command of the game.
The turning point came in the bottom of the 6th. New York Mets pushed across 4 runs to seize control of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.322
Avg OPS
0.741
Pitching FIP
3.74
Pitching K%
25.98%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 19HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cristopher Sánchez 2.36, Alan Rangel 2.77
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cristopher Sánchez 28.3%, Alan Rangel 25.5%, Chase Shugart 26.9%
Avg wOBA
0.310
Avg OPS
0.701
Pitching FIP
3.28
Pitching K%
24.72%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: A.J. Minter 1.76, Brooks Raley 3.43
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Christian Scott 27%, Austin Warren 25.8%