Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Atlanta Braves's Martín Pérez (6-6, 3.38 ERA) against New York Mets's Zac Thornton (1-1, 1.93 ERA).
New York Mets's Zac Thornton posts an elite 1.93 ERA this season, while Martín Pérez has been solid at 3.38. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Martín Pérez — FIP 4.44, K% 18.6%, 85.3 IP / Zac Thornton — FIP 2.97, K% 19.5%, 23.3 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Atlanta Braves 62-43 (.590), New York Mets 44-62 (.415).
Atlanta Braves holds the edge in the season standings, though New York Mets can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Run differential: Atlanta Braves +107, New York Mets -62. Atlanta Braves boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Atlanta Braves on a 1-game win streak, New York Mets on a 1-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, New York Mets holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Atlanta Braves bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Bryce Elder 3.96 ERA, 98K in 113.2IP, Chris Sale 2.19 ERA, 134K in 111.0IP.
New York Mets bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: A.J. Minter 2.45 ERA, 18K in 22.0IP, Brooks Raley (Setup) 2.15 ERA, 38K in 37.2IP, Christian Scott 3.13 ERA, 78K in 63.1IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Atlanta Braves 44% vs New York Mets 56%
Factors: New York Mets's starter owns the lower ERA, New York Mets's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Martín Pérez averages 5.7 IP per start vs. Zac Thornton at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Martín Pérez has allowed 10 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.