Today's starting pitching matchup features Miami Marlins's Tyler Phillips (2-5, 3.52 ERA) against New York Mets's Zac Thornton (2-1, 2.43 ERA).

New York Mets's Zac Thornton posts an elite 2.43 ERA this season, while Tyler Phillips has been league-average at 3.52. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Tyler Phillips — FIP 4.61, K% 17.4%, 84.3 IP / Zac Thornton — FIP 3.20, K% 20.0%, 29.7 IP

Tyler Phillips has struggled against New York Mets's No. 4 hitter Carson Benge, allowing a .400 career average (2-for-5).

Tyler Phillips has a concerning .321 career BAA (9-for-28) vs. New York Mets's top of the order — early damage is a real possibility.

2026 season record: Miami Marlins 56-55 (.505), New York Mets 47-64 (.423).

Miami Marlins holds the edge in the season standings, though New York Mets can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Miami Marlins +7, New York Mets -52. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: Miami Marlins on a 1-game win streak, New York Mets on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, New York Mets holds the edge.

Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Gibson 5.72 ERA, 26K in 28.1IP, Calvin Faucher (Setup) 4.63 ERA, 50K in 46.2IP, Dax Fulton 4.50 ERA, 12K in 14.0IP.

New York Mets bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brooks Raley (Setup) 2.01 ERA, 40K in 40.1IP, Christian Scott 2.99 ERA, 85K in 69.1IP, Daniel Duarte 0.00 ERA, 11K in 11.1IP.

Projected win probability: Miami Marlins 45% vs New York Mets 55%

Factors: New York Mets's starter owns the lower ERA, New York Mets's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Tyler Phillips averages 7.7 IP per start vs. Zac Thornton at 5.9 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Tyler Phillips has allowed 10 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.