Today's starting pitching matchup features San Francisco Giants's Matt Wilkinson (0-2, 4.63 ERA) against New York Mets's Nolan McLean (10-8, 3.06 ERA).

New York Mets's Nolan McLean posts an solid 3.06 ERA this season, while Matt Wilkinson has been shaky at 4.63. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Matt Wilkinson — FIP 3.70, K% 12.8%, 11.7 IP / Nolan McLean — FIP 3.61, K% 26.7%, 155.7 IP

2026 season record: San Francisco Giants 58-83 (.411), New York Mets 63-77 (.450).

Run differential: San Francisco Giants -73, New York Mets -50. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: San Francisco Giants on a 1-game losing streak, New York Mets on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, New York Mets holds the edge.

San Francisco Giants bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Anthony Molina 3.77 ERA, 9K in 14.1IP, Blade Tidwell 4.43 ERA, 36K in 42.2IP.

New York Mets bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Austin Warren 4.24 ERA, 46K in 40.1IP, Christian Scott 3.80 ERA, 113K in 94.2IP.

Projected win probability: San Francisco Giants 42% vs New York Mets 58%

Factors: New York Mets's starter owns the lower ERA, New York Mets's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Matt Wilkinson averages 3.9 IP per start vs. Nolan McLean at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Nolan McLean has allowed 15 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.