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Tampa Bay Rays
50.7%
New York Yankees
49.3%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
-103
Favorite
New York Yankees
+103
Underdog
Over / Under
9
Total Runs Line
4.2 + 4.6 = 8.8
Expected: Tampa Bay Rays + New York Yankees
Run Line (-1.5)
New York Yankees -1.5
Expected margin: +0.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Yankee Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Tampa Bay Rays Away Starter
W-L
4-1
Season IP
48.0
Season K
45
ERA
3.19
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
rays 0 - 0 yankees. A standard game between both teams.
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New York Yankees Home Starter
W-L
2-2
Season IP
50.1
Season K
61
ERA
3.58
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.278
Avg OPS
0.629
Pitching FIP
3.40
Pitching K%
24.55%
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Baker 2.63, Casey Legumina 3.15
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Baker 29.1%, Garrett Cleavinger 31%
Avg wOBA
0.351
Avg OPS
0.804
Pitching FIP
3.14
Pitching K%
26.32%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
▸Power: Ben Rice 16HR, Aaron Judge 16HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cam Schlittler 1.81, Brent Headrick 2.91, Carlos Rodón 3.25
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cam Schlittler 29.6%, Brent Headrick 26.4%, Carlos Rodón 28.8%