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Boston Red Sox
35.5%
New York Yankees
64.5%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
+182
Underdog
New York Yankees
-182
Favorite
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
3.5 + 4.4 = 7.9
Expected: Boston Red Sox + New York Yankees
Run Line (-1.5)
New York Yankees -1.5
Expected margin: +0.9 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Yankee Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Boston Red Sox Away Starter
W-L
2-3
Season IP
65.0
Season K
63
ERA
3.18
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
red-sox 0 - 0 yankees. A standard game between both teams.
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New York Yankees Home Starter
W-L
7-1
Season IP
64.1
Season K
70
ERA
3.22
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.298
Avg OPS
0.671
Pitching FIP
3.69
Pitching K%
24.70%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Aroldis Chapman 1.98
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Aroldis Chapman 33.8%
Avg wOBA
0.332
Avg OPS
0.764
Pitching FIP
3.14
Pitching K%
25.52%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Ben Rice 18HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cam Schlittler 2.11, Brent Headrick 2.9, Carlos Rodón 3.5
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cam Schlittler 28.1%, Brent Headrick 26.4%, Carlos Rodón 26%