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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
47.2%
New York Yankees
52.8%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Yankee Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Pittsburgh Pirates Away Starter
W-L
9-3
Season IP
113.1
Season K
128
ERA
3.49
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick GonzalesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Brandon LoweBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryan ReynoldsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Esmerlyn ValdezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Ryan O'HearnBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Marcell OzunaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jared TrioloBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Henry DavisBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Billy CookBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braxton AshcraftPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan WeathersPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
pirates 0 - 0 yankees. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+112
Underdog
New York Yankees
-112
Favorite
Over / Under
9.5
Total Runs Line
4.9 + 4.4 = 9.3
Expected: Pittsburgh Pirates + New York Yankees
Run Line (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Expected margin: -0.5 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
New York Yankees Home Starter
W-L
3-7
Season IP
97.2
Season K
110
ERA
4.15
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trent GrishamBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Ben RiceBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Paul GoldschmidtBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Cody BellingerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Jasson DomínguezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Ryan McMahonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Austin WellsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | José CaballeroBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.335
Avg OPS
0.772
Pitching FIP
4.00
Pitching K%
23.25%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Brandon Lowe 21HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Braxton Ashcraft 3.32
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Braxton Ashcraft 27.8%, Brandon Eisert 26.6%
Avg wOBA
0.306
Avg OPS
0.697
Pitching FIP
3.30
Pitching K%
27.47%
▸Power: Ben Rice 29HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brent Headrick 2.35, Cam Schlittler 2.72, Angel Chivilli 3.43
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brent Headrick 28.4%, Cam Schlittler 29.7%, Angel Chivilli 30.6%