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Baltimore Orioles
45%
New York Yankees
55%
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+122
Underdog
New York Yankees
-122
Favorite
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.1 + 4.7 = 9.8
Expected: Baltimore Orioles + New York Yankees
Run Line (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
Expected margin: -0.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Yankee Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Baltimore Orioles Away Starter
W-L
6-15
Season IP
179.2
Season K
154
ERA
4.11
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
orioles 0 - 0 yankees. A standard game between both teams.
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New York Yankees Home Starter
W-L
0-3
Season IP
26.2
Season K
21
ERA
5.40
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees finished deadlocked at 0-0. Neither side could land the decisive blow in a tightly contested affair.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.301
Avg OPS
0.674
Pitching FIP
3.73
Pitching K%
21.67%
▸Power: Coby Mayo 24HR
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex Hoppe 3.43, Anthony Nunez 3.49
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Anthony Nunez 25.9%
Avg wOBA
0.314
Avg OPS
0.718
Pitching FIP
6.50
Pitching K%
23.75%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Ben Rice 41HR, Aaron Judge 18HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Brent Headrick 2.46
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brent Headrick 30.1%