Today's starting pitching matchup features Cleveland Guardians's Gavin Williams (6-3, 3.67 ERA) against Philadelphia Phillies's Cristopher Sánchez (5-2, 1.82 ERA).

Philadelphia Phillies's Cristopher Sánchez posts an elite 1.82 ERA this season, while Gavin Williams has been league-average at 3.67. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Gavin Williams — FIP 3.75, K% 29.2%, 61.3 IP / Cristopher Sánchez — FIP 1.92, K% 29.9%, 64.3 IP

Gavin Williams has struggled against Philadelphia Phillies's No. 1 hitter Trea Turner, allowing a .500 career average (3-for-6).

Gavin Williams carries a .280 career BAA (7-for-25) vs. Philadelphia Phillies's top of the order — a neutral track record.

2026 season record: Cleveland Guardians 30-22 (.577), Philadelphia Phillies 25-25 (.500).

Cleveland Guardians holds the edge in the season standings, though Philadelphia Phillies can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Cleveland Guardians on a 6-game win streak, Philadelphia Phillies on a 2-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge.

Cleveland Guardians bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Cade Smith (Closer) 2.66 ERA, 35K in 23.2IP, Colin Holderman 1.50 ERA, 21K in 18.0IP, Erik Sabrowski (Setup) 1.71 ERA, 39K in 21.0IP.

Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 6.04 ERA, 51K in 50.2IP, Andrew Painter 5.77 ERA, 37K in 43.2IP, Brad Keller 3.92 ERA, 24K in 20.2IP.

Projected win probability: Cleveland Guardians 42% vs Philadelphia Phillies 58%

Factors: Philadelphia Phillies's starter owns the lower ERA, Philadelphia Phillies's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Gavin Williams averages 6.1 IP per start vs. Cristopher Sánchez at 6.4 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.