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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 4 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
31.6%
Philadelphia Phillies
68.4%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Citizens Bank Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
San Diego Padres Away Starter
IP
4.0
K
5
ER
1
H
4
BB
1
Pitches
69
W-L
2-0
Season IP
16.2
Season K
11
ERA
4.32
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Gavin SheetsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Manny MachadoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ty FranceBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Jackson MerrillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Xander BogaertsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Miguel AndujarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Freddy FerminBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Bryce JohnsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lucas GiolitoPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 4.0 | 69 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack WheelerPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
phillies edged out a 1-0 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
Bryson Stott (phillies) went 2-for-2 with 1 RBI.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
+216
Underdog
Philadelphia Phillies
-216
Favorite
Over / Under
9
Total Runs Line
3.6 + 5.3 = 8.9
Expected: San Diego Padres + Philadelphia Phillies
Run Line (-1.5)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Expected margin: +1.7 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies Home Starter
IP
5.0
K
7
ER
0
H
0
BB
1
Pitches
64
W-L
4-1
Season IP
48.1
Season K
47
ERA
2.05
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle SchwarberBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Trea TurnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryce HarperBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Brandon MarshBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Alec BohmBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Bryson StottBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 2 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | J.T. RealmutoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Adolis GarcíaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Justin CrawfordBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 5: Philadelphia Phillies leads 1-0. San Diego Padres needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.265
Avg OPS
0.589
Pitching FIP
3.68
Pitching K%
22.07%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bradgley Rodriguez 2.23, Adrian Morejon 2.33
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adrian Morejon 28.7%
Avg wOBA
0.301
Avg OPS
0.688
Pitching FIP
4.30
Pitching K%
23.75%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Brad Keller 25.9%, Chase Shugart 26.7%