StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
Miami Marlins 6 - 4 Philadelphia Phillies (Top 5th)
Live Game
Top 5: Miami Marlins leads 6-4. Philadelphia Phillies needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 7 | 2 |
| PHI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Miami Marlins
51.5%
Philadelphia Phillies
48.5%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Citizens Bank Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Miami Marlins Away Starter
IP
4.0
K
4
ER
2
H
7
BB
1
Pitches
80
W-L
6-4
Season IP
101.1
Season K
75
ERA
4.26
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liam HicksBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Otto LopezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Kyle StowersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| 4 | Xavier EdwardsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Javier SanojaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Owen CaissieBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Jakob MarseeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Joe MackBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Esteury RuizBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sandy AlcantaraPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 4.0 | 80 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew PainterPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 56 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | - | |||||||
Tim MayzaPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.0 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | |||||||
Jonathan BowlanPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
Kyle Stowers (marlins) went 2-for-3 (incl. 1 HR) with 3 RBI.
Andrew Painter was pulled after just 2.0 IP with 6 ER, putting pressure on the bullpen.
Sandy Alcantara averaged 20.0 pitches per inning — high workload.
marlins scored 4 runs in the top of the 2nd, seizing momentum.
2 relievers used, 2.1 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
phillies bullpen ERA: 0.00 (2.3 IP)
Tim Mayza (phillies) — 2.0 IP, 0 runs, 3 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Miami Marlins
-106
Favorite
Philadelphia Phillies
+106
Underdog
Over / Under
10
Total Runs Line
5.5 + 4.6 = 10.1
Expected: Miami Marlins + Philadelphia Phillies
Run Line (-1.5)
Miami Marlins -1.5
Expected margin: -0.9 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies Home Starter
IP
2.0
K
3
ER
6
H
6
BB
2
Pitches
56
W-L
1-7
Season IP
65.0
Season K
53
ERA
7.06
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea TurnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Kyle SchwarberBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bryce HarperBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Brandon MarshBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Alec BohmBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Bryson StottBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Gabriel Rincones Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Justin CrawfordBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Garrett StubbsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - |
Top 5: Miami Marlins leads 6-4. Philadelphia Phillies needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.291
Avg OPS
0.652
Pitching FIP
3.28
Pitching K%
24.18%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Anthony Bender 2.52, Dax Fulton 2.93, Calvin Faucher 3.23
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Anthony Bender 30%, Calvin Faucher 25%
Avg wOBA
0.314
Avg OPS
0.721
Pitching FIP
4.03
Pitching K%
24.13%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cristopher Sánchez 2.15
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cristopher Sánchez 29%, Chase Shugart 26.8%