Today's starting pitching matchup features Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft (7-3, 3.07 ERA) against Philadelphia Phillies's Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.58 ERA).

Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft posts an solid 3.07 ERA this season, while Aaron Nola has been struggling at 5.58. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Braxton Ashcraft — FIP 2.83, K% 27.3%, 96.7 IP / Aaron Nola — FIP 4.85, K% 23.2%, 80.7 IP

Braxton Ashcraft has a concerning .333 career BAA (7-for-21) vs. Philadelphia Phillies's top of the order — early damage is a real possibility.

2026 season record: Pittsburgh Pirates 42-42 (.500), Philadelphia Phillies 47-37 (.560).

Philadelphia Phillies holds the edge in the season standings, though Pittsburgh Pirates can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game win streak, Philadelphia Phillies on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandan Bidois 4.80 ERA, 18K in 15.0IP, Braxton Ashcraft 3.07 ERA, 107K in 96.2IP, Bubba Chandler 4.42 ERA, 73K in 79.1IP.

Philadelphia Phillies bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Nola 5.58 ERA, 82K in 80.2IP, Alan Rangel 2.25 ERA, 9K in 8.0IP, Chase Shugart 4.18 ERA, 32K in 28.0IP.

Projected win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 59% vs Philadelphia Phillies 41%

Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Philadelphia Phillies's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Braxton Ashcraft averages 6.0 IP per start vs. Aaron Nola at 5.0 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Aaron Nola has allowed 17 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.