StatScope Analysis|Live GameLIVE
New York Mets 1 - 4 Philadelphia Phillies (Bot 6th)
Live Game
Bot 6: Philadelphia Phillies leads 4-1. New York Mets needs to mount a rally.
Game in progress — data updates in real time.StatScope AI Engine
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 | 8 | 1 |
New York Mets
39.5%
Philadelphia Phillies
60.5%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Citizens Bank Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
New York Mets Away Starter
IP
4.2
K
7
ER
4
H
7
BB
2
Pitches
99
W-L
2-4
Season IP
75.0
Season K
74
ERA
4.56
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco LindorBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Juan SotoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Bo BichetteBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Francisco AlvarezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Carson BengeBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Marcus SemienBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Tyrone TaylorBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | A.J. EwingBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Eric WagamanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sean ManaeaPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 4.2 | 99 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | - | |||||||
Kodai SengaPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús LuzardoPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | - | |||||||
Orion KerkeringPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
Trea Turner (phillies) went 2-for-3 (incl. 1 HR) with 1 RBI.
Sean Manaea averaged 21.2 pitches per inning — high workload.
phillies (8 H) significantly out-hit mets (2 H).
1 relievers used, 1.0 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
1 relievers used, 0.1 IP total, 0 runs allowed.
Both teams' bullpen ERA was identical at 0.00.
Orion Kerkering (phillies) — 1.0 IP, 0 runs, 1 K. The most reliable arm out of the bullpen.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
New York Mets
+153
Underdog
Philadelphia Phillies
-153
Favorite
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
3.7 + 4.7 = 8.4
Expected: New York Mets + Philadelphia Phillies
Run Line (-1.5)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Expected margin: +1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies Home Starter
IP
5.0
K
7
ER
1
H
2
BB
2
Pitches
90
W-L
8-4
Season IP
115.1
Season K
143
ERA
3.43
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea TurnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Kyle SchwarberBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 3 | Bryce HarperBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Alec BohmBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 3 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Edmundo SosaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 3 | 2 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Brandon MarshBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | J.T. RealmutoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Derek HillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Bryson StottBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 1 | - | - |
Orion Kerkering(1.0 IP, scoreless)
Kodai Senga (mets) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
Bot 6: Philadelphia Phillies leads 4-1. New York Mets needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.308
Avg OPS
0.694
Pitching FIP
3.74
Pitching K%
24.15%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: A.J. Minter 2.84, Brooks Raley 3.18
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Christian Scott 28.5%
Avg wOBA
0.317
Avg OPS
0.728
Pitching FIP
4.34
Pitching K%
26.10%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Bryce Harper 20HR, Brandon Marsh 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Cristopher Sánchez 2.7
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cristopher Sánchez 27.4%, Alan Rangel 25.9%, Chase Shugart 27.2%