Today's starting pitching matchup features St. Louis Cardinals's Dustin May (3-2, 5.84 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Mason Montgomery (1-0, 3.97 ERA).

Pittsburgh Pirates's Mason Montgomery posts an league-average 3.97 ERA this season, while Dustin May has been struggling at 5.84. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Dustin May — FIP 3.91, K% 18.9%, 24.7 IP / Mason Montgomery — FIP 2.13, K% 41.2%, 11.3 IP

2026 season record: St. Louis Cardinals 14-13 (.519), Pittsburgh Pirates 16-12 (.571).

Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge in the season standings, though St. Louis Cardinals can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: St. Louis Cardinals on a 4-game losing streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.

St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 4.26 ERA, 20 K in 25.1 IP, Dustin May 5.84 ERA, 20 K in 24.2 IP, George Soriano 4.76 ERA, 9 K in 11.1 IP.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Bubba Chandler 4.88 ERA, 21 K in 24.0 IP, Carmen Mlodzinski 4.13 ERA, 30 K in 28.1 IP.

Projected win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 39% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 61%

Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Dustin May averages 4.9 IP per start vs. Mason Montgomery at 11.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.