Today's starting pitching matchup features Minnesota Twins's Bailey Ober (6-2, 3.92 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Mitch Keller (5-2, 3.64 ERA).

Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Bailey Ober 1.10, Mitch Keller 1.07.

Advanced metrics: Bailey Ober — FIP 4.52, K% 16.9%, 62.0 IP / Mitch Keller — FIP 3.50, K% 17.9%, 64.3 IP

Mitch Keller has allowed high batting averages to several Minnesota Twins hitters: Orlando Arcia (5/10, .500), Josh Bell (6/14, .429), Byron Buxton (2/6, .333). These matchups bear watching.

Mitch Keller has a concerning .348 career BAA (16-for-46) vs. Minnesota Twins's top of the order — early damage is a real possibility.

2026 season record: Minnesota Twins 27-31 (.466), Pittsburgh Pirates 30-28 (.517).

Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge in the season standings, though Minnesota Twins can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Minnesota Twins on a 3-game losing streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.

Minnesota Twins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Morris (Setup) 4.18 ERA, 20K in 23.2IP, Anthony Banda (Setup) 5.40 ERA, 21K in 25.0IP, Bailey Ober 3.92 ERA, 43K in 62.0IP.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandan Bidois 4.50 ERA, 8K in 8.0IP, Braxton Ashcraft 2.75 ERA, 70K in 68.2IP, Bubba Chandler 4.85 ERA, 52K in 52.0IP.

Projected win probability: Minnesota Twins 47% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 53%

Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Bailey Ober averages 5.6 IP per start vs. Mitch Keller at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.