Today's starting pitching matchup features Chicago Cubs's Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.38 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft (9-4, 3.95 ERA).

Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft posts an league-average 3.95 ERA this season, while Jameson Taillon has been shaky at 5.38. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Jameson Taillon — FIP 6.39, K% 21.2%, 72.0 IP / Braxton Ashcraft — FIP 3.53, K% 27.0%, 116.3 IP

2026 season record: Chicago Cubs 59-45 (.567), Pittsburgh Pirates 53-52 (.505).

Chicago Cubs holds the edge in the season standings, though Pittsburgh Pirates can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Chicago Cubs +77, Pittsburgh Pirates +39. Chicago Cubs boasts superior run production.

Recent form: Chicago Cubs on a 2-game win streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 3-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.

Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Aaron Civale 5.49 ERA, 60K in 77.0IP, Caleb Thielbar (Setup) 4.06 ERA, 40K in 31.0IP, Colin Rea 4.85 ERA, 81K in 105.2IP.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Brandon Eisert 6.75 ERA, 38K in 32.0IP, Braxton Ashcraft 3.95 ERA, 130K in 116.1IP, Bubba Chandler 4.47 ERA, 90K in 100.2IP.

Projected win probability: Chicago Cubs 42% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 58%

Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Jameson Taillon averages 5.1 IP per start vs. Braxton Ashcraft at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Jameson Taillon has allowed 22 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.