Today's starting pitching matchup features Los Angeles Angels's Yusei Kikuchi (0-5, 5.65 ERA) against Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft (14-5, 3.59 ERA).

Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft posts an league-average 3.59 ERA this season, while Yusei Kikuchi has been struggling at 5.65. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Yusei Kikuchi — FIP 4.47, K% 22.4%, 43.0 IP / Braxton Ashcraft — FIP 3.54, K% 25.4%, 160.3 IP

2026 season record: Los Angeles Angels 53-88 (.376), Pittsburgh Pirates 70-72 (.493).

Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge in the season standings, though Los Angeles Angels can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Los Angeles Angels -81, Pittsburgh Pirates +30. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: Los Angeles Angels on a 3-game losing streak, Pittsburgh Pirates on a 2-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.

Los Angeles Angels bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Ben Joyce 2.89 ERA, 13K in 9.1IP, Blake Weiman 2.61 ERA, 10K in 10.1IP, Grayson Rodriguez 6.03 ERA, 72K in 77.2IP.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 14 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braxton Ashcraft 3.59 ERA, 164K in 160.1IP, Bubba Chandler 4.30 ERA, 121K in 136.0IP, Camilo Doval (Setup) 4.14 ERA, 56K in 54.1IP.

Projected win probability: Los Angeles Angels 39% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 61%

Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, Pittsburgh Pirates's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Yusei Kikuchi averages 4.8 IP per start vs. Braxton Ashcraft at 5.9 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Braxton Ashcraft has allowed 21 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.