Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates - Game Analysis | StatScope
Away
Kansas City Royals
5
VS
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates
6
FinalInning 9
Team
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
R
H
E
KC
0
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
0
5
13
1
PIT
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
2
-
6
9
1
Win Probability
High confidence
Kansas City Royals
32.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates
67.6%
69-93Record82-80
42.7%Expected Win%51.7%
-120Run Diff+28
4.11Starter ERA4.50
3.92Starter FIP4.24
How to Read This Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of PNC Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Brandon Eisert (pirates) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 2 to score. Let 2 inherited runners come around to score.
StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates edges Kansas City Royals 6-5
Game Summary
Pittsburgh Pirates squeaked out a narrow win over Kansas City Royals, 6-5. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
Key Players
Carter Jensen led Kansas City Royals's offense, going 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI. Kansas City Royals reliever Nolan Hoffman threw 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K and picked up a hold.
Brandon Lowe led Pittsburgh Pirates's offense, going 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI. Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Brandon Eisert threw 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Pitching Report
Kansas City Royals starter Noah Cameron: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 2 BB (94 pitches). 2 HR allowed is a troubling rate of long-ball damage. Bullpen: 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K (ERA 9.00).
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bubba Chandler: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB (90 pitches). Failed to complete five innings, leaving extra burden on the bullpen. Bullpen: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K (ERA 3.60).
Hitting Analysis
Kansas City Royals: 9 H, 2 RBI (team AVG 0.321). Includes 1 HR.
Multi-hit games: Bobby Witt Jr. (3-for-5), Nick Loftin (4-for-5).