Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates - Game Analysis | StatScope
Away
Kansas City Royals
3
VS
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates
4
FinalInning 9
Team
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5
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9
R
H
E
KC
1
0
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PIT
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Win Probability
High confidence
Kansas City Royals
31.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates
68.8%
69-93Record82-80
42.7%Expected Win%51.7%
-120Run Diff+28
3.32Starter ERA3.43
4.38Starter FIP4.32
How to Read This Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of PNC Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Nolan Hoffman (royals) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
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High-Leverage Entry
Jose Cuas (royals) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
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High-Leverage Entry
Anthony Gose (royals) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates edges Kansas City Royals 4-3
Game Summary
Pittsburgh Pirates squeaked out a narrow win over Kansas City Royals, 4-3. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
Key Players
Salvador Perez led Kansas City Royals's offense, going 2-for-4, 1 RBI. Kansas City Royals starter Michael Wacha threw 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Rafael Flores Jr. led Pittsburgh Pirates's offense, going 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI. Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Yohan Ramírez threw 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Pitching Report
Kansas City Royals starter Michael Wacha: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 4 BB (113 pitches). Bullpen: 2.3 IP, 2 ER, 4 K (ERA 7.71).
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Lake Bachar: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB (20 pitches). Failed to complete five innings, leaving extra burden on the bullpen. Bullpen: 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K (ERA 2.25).
Hitting Analysis
Kansas City Royals: 8 H, 1 RBI (team AVG 0.250).
Multi-hit games: Jac Caglianone (2-for-3), Salvador Perez (2-for-4).