Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Los Angeles Dodgers's Shohei Ohtani (3-2, 0.82 ERA) against San Diego Padres's Randy Vásquez (5-1, 2.68 ERA).
Los Angeles Dodgers's Shohei Ohtani posts an elite 0.82 ERA this season, while Randy Vásquez has been solid at 2.68. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Shohei Ohtani — FIP 2.37, K% 29.2%, 44.0 IP / Randy Vásquez — FIP 3.30, K% 22.2%, 50.3 IP
Career H2H Analysis
On the flip side, Gavin Sheets has been overmatched by Shohei Ohtani, going just 0-for-6 (.000) in their career matchup.
Shohei Ohtani carries a .280 career BAA (7-for-25) vs. San Diego Padres's top of the order — a neutral track record.
Randy Vásquez has struggled against Los Angeles Dodgers's No. 7 hitter Andy Pages, allowing a .500 career average (3-for-6), including 2 HR.
On the flip side, Shohei Ohtani (0/5), Mookie Betts (0/5) have all been largely shut down by Randy Vásquez in their careers.
Power threat alert: Andy Pages (6타석 중 2홈런). Randy Vásquez must be careful with these hitters' extra-base pop.
Randy Vásquez owns a .182 career batting average against (6-for-33) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers's top of the order — a strong sign for a quality outing.
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Los Angeles Dodgers 30-19 (.612), San Diego Padres 29-19 (.604).
Run differential: Los Angeles Dodgers +94, San Diego Padres +7. Los Angeles Dodgers boasts superior run production.
Recent form: Los Angeles Dodgers on a 1-game win streak, San Diego Padres on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Los Angeles Dodgers holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Alex Vesia 2.65 ERA, 23K in 17.0IP, Blake Treinen (Setup) 3.52 ERA, 14K in 15.1IP, Edgardo Henriquez 3.44 ERA, 17K in 18.1IP.
San Diego Padres bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Adrian Morejon (Setup) 4.88 ERA, 29K in 24.0IP, Bradgley Rodriguez 1.52 ERA, 20K in 23.2IP, Griffin Canning 9.00 ERA, 19K in 16.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Los Angeles Dodgers 54% vs San Diego Padres 46%
Factors: Los Angeles Dodgers's starter owns the lower ERA, San Diego Padres's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Shohei Ohtani averages 6.3 IP per start vs. Randy Vásquez at 5.6 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Petco Park is classified as a pitcher-friendly park. Starter endurance becomes even more critical.