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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
57.6%
San Diego Padres
42.4%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Petco Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Los Angeles Dodgers Away Starter
W-L
4-5
Season IP
72.2
Season K
81
ERA
5.08
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
dodgers 4 - 2 padres. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Los Angeles Dodgers
-136
Favorite
San Diego Padres
+136
Underdog
Over / Under
9
Total Runs Line
5 + 3.8 = 8.8
Expected: Los Angeles Dodgers + San Diego Padres
Run Line (-1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Expected margin: -1.2 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
San Diego Padres Home Starter
W-L
5-7
Season IP
96.1
Season K
83
ERA
3.55
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Los Angeles Dodgers defeated San Diego Padres 4-2.
The turning point came in the top of the 5th. Los Angeles Dodgers pushed across 3 runs to seize control of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.297
Avg OPS
0.674
Pitching FIP
3.82
Pitching K%
27.83%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Andy Pages 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex Vesia 2.02, Edgardo Henriquez 2.76
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alex Vesia 34.2%, Edgardo Henriquez 26%, Emmet Sheehan 26.1%, Brock Stewart 25%
Avg wOBA
0.268
Avg OPS
0.601
Pitching FIP
4.06
Pitching K%
24.13%
▸Power: Manny Machado 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Adrian Morejon 2.03
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adrian Morejon 29.2%