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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| SD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
49.7%
San Diego Padres
50.3%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Petco Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Toronto Blue Jays Away Starter
W-L
0-1
Season IP
13.0
Season K
9
ERA
9.00
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
blue-jays scored 4 runs in the top of the 5th, seizing momentum.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
+101
Underdog
San Diego Padres
-101
Favorite
Over / Under
11
Total Runs Line
4.6 + 6.6 = 11.2
Expected: Toronto Blue Jays + San Diego Padres
Run Line (-1.5)
San Diego Padres -1.5
Expected margin: +2 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
San Diego Padres Home Starter
W-L
2-2
Season IP
19.2
Season K
17
ERA
5.03
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Toronto Blue Jays defeated San Diego Padres 5-3.
The turning point came in the top of the 5th. Toronto Blue Jays pushed across 4 runs to seize control of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.299
Avg OPS
0.678
Pitching FIP
3.40
Pitching K%
25.13%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dylan Cease 2.18, Chad Dallas 3.1
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Dylan Cease 36.9%, Braydon Fisher 25.1%
Avg wOBA
0.292
Avg OPS
0.661
Pitching FIP
3.95
Pitching K%
22.30%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Adrian Morejon 2.38, Bradgley Rodriguez 2.61
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adrian Morejon 29.2%