Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres - Game Analysis | StatScope
Away
Minnesota Twins
2
VS
Home
San Diego Padres
6
FinalInning 9
Team
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
R
H
E
MIN
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
SD
2
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
-
6
9
0
Win Probability
High confidence
Minnesota Twins
40.6%
San Diego Padres
59.4%
66-72Record73-65
46.8%Expected Win%51.2%
-46Run Diff+15
5.55Starter ERA4.02
4.00Starter FIP4.40
How to Read This Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Analysis
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Petco Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Taylor Rogers (twins) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
San Diego Padres tops Minnesota Twins 6-2
Game Summary
San Diego Padres topped Minnesota Twins 6-2. A comfortable 4-run margin reflected San Diego Padres's steady command of the game.
The turning point came in the bottom of the 5th. San Diego Padres pushed across 4 runs to seize control of the game.
Key Players
Kody Clemens led Minnesota Twins's offense, going 1-for-3, 2 RBI. Minnesota Twins reliever Travis Adams threw 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Ty France led San Diego Padres's offense, going 1-for-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI. San Diego Padres reliever Bradgley Rodriguez threw 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Pitching Report
Minnesota Twins starter Connor Prielipp: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 7 K, 2 BB (96 pitches). The bullpen (2 pitchers) was scoreless over 2.0 IP with 2 K — a flawless relief effort.
San Diego Padres starter Randy Vásquez: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 0 BB (87 pitches). Quality start. K/IP of 0.43 reflects efficient pitching. The bullpen (2 pitchers) was scoreless over 2.0 IP with 4 K — a flawless relief effort.
Hitting Analysis
Minnesota Twins: 2 H, 2 RBI (team AVG 0.069).
Cleanup cold: Josh Bell (0-for-3), Ryan Jeffers (0-for-3). The silence from the heart of the order proved costly.
San Diego Padres: 9 H, 6 RBI (team AVG 0.310). Includes 1 HR. Drew 4 walks, boosting on-base production.
Multi-hit games: Fernando Tatis Jr. (3-for-4), Luis Rengifo (2-for-4), Manny Machado (2-for-4).
This article was auto-generated from box score data.StatScope AI Engine
Roster Sabermetrics Comparison
2026 season
MIN
Minnesota Twins (Away)
Avg wOBA
0.335
Avg OPS
0.768
Pitching FIP
3.93
Pitching K%
21.00%
▸Power: Kody Clemens 23HR, Josh Bell 17HR, Brooks Lee 22HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Morris 3.19
SD
San Diego Padres (Home)
Avg wOBA
0.294
Avg OPS
0.664
Pitching FIP
3.13
Pitching K%
25.38%
▸Power: Fernando Tatis Jr. 17HR, Jackson Merrill 22HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Adrian Morejon 2.42, Bradgley Rodriguez 2.49, Casey Mize 3.45
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adrian Morejon 29.9%, Bradgley Rodriguez 25.8%